OSINT Carbon Accounting · Module 1 + 3 + 4

Geopolitical disruption and physical destruction
are carbon accounting events.

Every diverted route, destroyed city, and collapsed structure leaves a carbon liability — real, quantifiable, and absent from any Scope 3 disclosure, insurance model, or sovereign transition plan. This tool provides open-source estimates across three unaccounted carbon channels: logistics diversion, conflict reconstruction, and disaster rebuild.

Active scenario — Red Sea / Suez Canal: Since late 2023, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have displaced hundreds of vessels per week to the Cape of Good Hope route, adding 3,000–4,500 nm per voyage. The CO₂e cost of this diversion is real, quantifiable, and absent from most Scope 3 disclosures.

CO₂e Penalty Calculator

Select a route, vessel type, and assumptions to estimate the additional carbon cost of geopolitical rerouting.

ShanghaiRotterdam✓ baseline: via Suez Canal (10,500 nm)⚠ rerouted: via Cape of Good Hope (13,750 nm)

Reconstruction
Committed Carbon Debt

Destroyed infrastructure is a guarantee of future emissions. The cement alone required to rebuild damaged structures in active conflict zones represents a carbon liability that does not appear in any Scope 3 disclosure.

Boundary: cement embodied emissions only. Steel, logistics, machinery excluded. See methodology/reconstruction-v0.1.json.

Low confidence — proxy estimate · 135M m² · World Bank RDNA3
Standard RC construction proxy: typical reinforced concrete, current regional practice.
EU ETS mid-range ≈ $65–85/t. Social cost of carbon: $50–$200+.

Committed Carbon Debt — Ukraine

Committed CO₂e
40.5M
tonnes CO₂e · cement boundary
Carbon Cost
$3.04B
at $75/tCO₂e
Floor Area (assessed)
135.0M
Factor Applied
0.3
tCO₂e / m² · Baseline

Conflict: Russia-Ukraine War

Source: World Bank RDNA3 (Feb 2024)

Data confidence: Low confidence — proxy estimate

Internal floor-area proxy derived from RDNA3 damage categories. Not a directly quoted floor-area figure.

This carbon is already written. The question is who will account for it. Boundary covers cement embodied emissions only. Actual reconstruction debt including steel, transport, and machinery would be substantially higher. Methodology: reconstruction-v0.1.json.

Natural Disaster
Committed Carbon Debt

Earthquakes, floods, and wildfires destroy structures that must be rebuilt. The cement alone required to reconstruct damaged buildings represents a forward carbon liability absent from any Scope 3 disclosure, insurance model, or sovereign green bond prospectus.

Boundary: cement embodied emissions only. Infrastructure, steel, and logistics excluded. See methodology/disaster-reconstruction-v0.1.json.

Low confidence — proxy estimate · 2.2M m² · Cabinet Office Japan
Full RC replacement at seismic-code standard. Equivalent to Module 3 baseline.
Green bond pricing ≈ $50–100/t. Social cost of carbon: $51–$185/t (US IWG 2023).

🏚 Committed Carbon Debt — Noto Peninsula Earthquake 2024

Committed CO₂e
660k
tonnes CO₂e · cement boundary
Carbon Cost
$49.5M
at $75/tCO₂e
Floor Area (proxy)
2.2M
Factor Applied
0.3
tCO₂e / m² · Earthquake (full RC rebuild)

Event: Noto Peninsula Earthquake 2024 (Noto Peninsula, Ishikawa, Japan)

Source: Cabinet Office Japan / Ishikawa Prefecture Damage Report

Data confidence: Low confidence — proxy estimate

Internal proxy: ~24,000 completely or severely destroyed buildings × 95 m² × 1.5 floors avg.

This liability is unaccounted. Natural disaster reconstruction emissions do not appear in any Scope 3 disclosure, insurance reserve model, or sovereign climate transition plan. The rebuild is not carbon-neutral. Methodology: disaster-reconstruction-v0.1.json.